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Written by DRH
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Sunday, 09 August 2009 21:10 Hits: 1123 |
I've foolishly ranked all 40 5A teams in preparation for the '09 season. Have a gander.
1. Sherwood. The Bowmen are my easy favorite to win it all in 2009. Check out the ‘Wood schedule:
West Albany
@ Grants Pass
Jefferson
@ Liberty
Century
@ Springfield
Hillsboro
Glencoe
@ Wilsonville
@ St. Helens
Open with a school that’s 41-1 the last three years? Check. Travel to a 6A power with a killer homefield advantage? Check. Host a pair of schools that made the 5A semifinals in 2008? Check and check. Play an annual heated rivalry game away from home? Check.
Not only do I think Sherwood is more talented than anybody else going into ’09, they should also be more battle-tested than anybody else come November, too. That’s a potent combination. It’s all set up for the Bowmen.
Projected Record: 9-1.
2. West Albany. WA won’t be a stranger to big-time games – they’ll trip to Sherwood and Hillsboro, and they host Jefferson and Corvallis.
The Bulldogs will need to overcome some significant losses – QB Reese Miller, FB/LB Matt McHenry, and OL/DL John Braun are among the departed seniors – but WA hasn’t gone 41-1 over the last three seasons by accident. Senior RB Anthony LaCoste is back, and there’s little doubt he’ll be the 5A Player of the Year at season’s end. Top to bottom, West Albany is the best 5A football program in the state. They aren’t going away.
Projected Record: 9-1.
3. Hermiston. I admit that I’m higher on Hermiston than most. I think that they’re going to be this year’s Thurston – going from “pretty good” to statewide elite by way of a prime-time senior quarterback.
QB Faafiaula Ena, the reigning IMC Offensive POTY, is in the second year of Coach Mark Hodges wide-open offense and should put up devastating numbers. The IMC is winnable – the Bulldogs host both Bend and Mountain View. Hermiston opens with two out of state games (Walla Walla, WA and Lewiston, ID) and may play in relative anonymity on the left side of the mountains until traveling to Hillsboro in late October. I think there’s every chance that Hermiston plays the role of underdog all the way to a deep postseason run.
Projected Record: 7-2
4. Thurston. The Colts should be among 5A’s stingiest defenses again this year, led by a rock-solid front 7 headlined by returning All State players DL Kraig Akins and OLB Kyle Wright. Thurston’s returning starters in ’09 combined for 234 tackles and 35.5 sacks in ’08. The defense should certainly be capable of keeping the ship afloat as QB Tim Pearson’s replacement gets settled.
Offensively, Akins and Wright both landed on the All State team last year on that side of the ball, too. Wright and returning TE Andrew Woody combined to catch just under 1,000 receiving yards last year, and the offensive line will once again be a strength.
Was it only two years ago that Thurston willingly signed on to play Sheldon, Grants Pass, and Bend in the non-league? The schedule isn’t nearly as difficult this year, although Corvallis should be a fun showdown.
Projected Record: 9-0.
5. Corvallis. Shades of 2006? Well, maybe, but at the very least, this Spartan team should be the best CHS has seen since the Spartans won it all in ’06.
Senior QB Ross Orman passed for 1,400 yards last year and is back to guide what should be an explosive offense. Junior Dominic Wooten is coming of a 1,200 yard sophomore season, and sophomore WR Blair Cavanaugh caught 250 yards worth of balls as a freshman (!) and should be poised for a record-setting career.
But returning skill position talent isn’t the only reason why I like Corvallis to make a splash in ’09 – 47 of the 59 players listed on Corvallis’ varsity ’08 roster were freshmen sophomores, or juniors. The Spartans return a lot of talent from a team that finished 2nd place in the MWC to West Albany.
Projected Record: 7-3.
6. Hillsboro. If Hermiston is this year’s Thurston, I think Hillsboro has a chance to be this year’s Grants Pass. In ’07, GP started strong but had the wheels come off down the stretch, only to reload in ’08 and transform themselves into one of the elites of 6A. Last year, Hillsboro started 5-1 – the loss coming at West Albany – before finished the year on a 1-4 slide. This could be the year they put it all together.
RB/LB Colt Lyerla is the toast of his high school class at a national level, blowing the doors off of the summer camp scene. He should be a gamebreaker on both sides of the ball. The Spartans graduated only 13 seniors off of last year’s playoff team, and return QB Dominique Mims and their top three rushers from ’08: RB Mikkel Smythe, Lyerla, and Mims. They also return their #1, #3, and #4 WRs.
The schedule will be a bear – they draw my #1-3 teams, hosting West Albany and Hermiston and tripping to Sherwood. They also play at Glencoe, and open on the road with 6A Redmond. But this should be a much improved, and very dangerous, Hillsboro team.
Projected Record: 7-3.
7. Marshfield. QB Kyle Tedder has one of the best arms in 5A, and he’s mobile enough to make the Marshfield offense truly something special. Tedder finished 7th in the MWL in rushing last year, despite missing a game due to suspension. He teams with senior RB Ryan Scoville to form a well-balanced running game. Though turnover prone in last season’s non-league, Tedder didn’t throw an INT in MWL play.
The defensive line has the potential to be one of the best in 5A with DT John Castro anchoring and DE Bo Cutting coming off the edge.
The Pirates don’t have things easy in ’09. They travel to Grants Pass, Ashland, and Jefferson, and host Thurston, Marist, and Churchill. New head coach Justin Ainsworth will certainly have an opportunity to make a splash.
Projected Record: 7-3.
8. Jefferson. Despite losing all-everything RB Marlon Miles, the Democrats certainly don’t find the cupboards bare heading into ’09. Junior QB Elisonoa Aluesi is back, as is a massive OL that will pose problems for almost everybody it comes in contact with.
Jeff might be one of those teams that slides under the radar until the postseason. Check out their first five games:
Grant
@ West Albany
@ Sherwood
@ Crater
Marshfield
6A Wilson also rounds out the regular season for the Dems. Jefferson could actually be under .500 heading into the playoffs, and still be one of 5A’s most dangerous teams.
Projected Record: 5-5.
9. Glencoe. The Crimson Tide lost well over half its listed varsity roster to graduation, making Glencoe somewhat of an enigma. Even last year’s success is somewhat confounding – were they really 4th place in the NWOC, or 4th place in 5A as their postseason run would suggest?
Kyle Hogan departs, but the running game should be in good hands with senior Kyle Cameron. And if Glencoe can run the ball, they’ll be in the mix. QB Conor Lein also graduated, meaning senior Tanner Apeland will take control.
Glencoe hosts a trio of games against top 10 teams – Bend, Corvallis, and Hillsboro – and plays at Sherwood. If they can hold serve at home they’ll likely be ranked a lot higher, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.
Projected Record: 6-4.
10. Crater. There’s a void to be filled in the SSC, and I think Crater is the team most capable of taking advantage. Tying for first place with Klamath Falls and Ashland in ’08, and winning the #1 seed via a tiebreaker, the Comets likely won’t need a coin flip to take the #1 seed in ’09.
Crater returns 9 starters on a defense that stifled prolific offenses like Ashland, KU, and Century down the stretch last year, and they should be able to ride the D until the rebuilt offense can find a rhythm.
The Comets do face the burden of tripping to both Ashland and KU, and they host 6A North Medford and Jefferson in a pair of prime non-league games.
Projected Record: 7-2.
11. Bend. The Lave Bears will rely on experience this year after finishing a game under .500 in 2008. RB Kyle Brown should be the focus of the offense after rushing for nearly 1,500 yards last season. QB Chase Clair is also back at QB, throwing for over eleven hundred yards as a junior.
Bend has to travel to Hermiston – who smoked them last year – but host the all-important rivalry game with Mountain View, as well as the Pendleton game. If you figure those three will be jockeying for 2nd place all season, hosting both games will be huge.
Projected Record: 7-3.
12. Churchill. Defense will be the name of the game for C-Hill in ’09 after graduating QB Eric Knapp, their top 3 rushers, and 1st Team All State WR Blake Determan. The Lancers return three outstanding senior linebackers and talent in the secondary. I’d project Churchill to have the second best D in the MWL, behind Thurston – it’ll have to fuel the ship as the offense works itself out. WR Sam Graham was an outstanding #2 option to Determan last year and should put up big numbers as the offense’s go-to playmaker.
Luckily, C-Hill will have an extended opportunity to find their way: after opening up at Sheldon, they’ve got four extremely winnable games leading up to an early October showdown at Marshfield.
Projected Record: 7-3.
13. Ashland. The Grizz will look a lot different this year without leading passer/rusher Talon Haggard. Junior QB Jason Scarminach was the top back-up last year. He’s mobile in the mold of Haggard, but we’ll have to wait and see if he can match Haggard’s outstanding production. Senior RB Issa Shahin replaces Lewis Sebrell. Senior WR Oliver Krant is small (5-7, 130) but productive.
The Grizz play half a MWL schedule (Marshfield, Springfield, @ Willamette), and have the luxury of hosting SSC conference foes Crater and Klamath Union.
Projected Record: 6-4.
14. Mountain View. The Cougars lose a large senior class and will be looking for answers at key spots, but a successful program like MV won’t simply go away overnight. Senior QB Zach Johnson looks to take over at QB-1. Senior RBs Solomon Helms and Chris Barber should keep the running game moving.
MV travels to Hermiston and Bend, who I pegged as finishing 1-2 in the IMC. They host Pendleton, a chief challenger for the #3 playoff berth, and Summit, who beat MV 7-0 last year in a stunner.
Projected Record: 7-3.
15. Willamette. The Wolverines fell apart in MWL play last year, after going 5-0 and achieving a top 5 ranking to start the season. Losing QB Spencer Phillips played a big role in that, but luckily for this year’s Wolverines, senior QB Jacob Hughes got considerable experience filling in. Hughes has a big arm.
Record-setting RB Craig Loper is gone, but senior Raphael Hidalgo is more than a suitable replacement. The running back group as a whole should be deep and talented. WR/DB RJ Durbin is a playmaker, and the lines should have plenty of options to shift through. The defense needs to step up after performing horribly in league play last year.
The non-league schedule is brutal: @ South Albany, Klamath Union, @ North Medford, Ashland, and @ South Eugene. They host Thurston, Marshfield, and Springfield in the MWL.
Projected Record: 5-5.
16. Klamath Union
17. Wilsonville
18. Madison
19. Century
20. South Albany
21. Springfield
22. Crescent Valley
23. Pendleton
24. St. Helens
25. Silverton
26. Eagle Point
27. Summit
28. Dallas
29. North Eugene
30. Liberty
31. Crook County
33. Cleveland
34. Lebanon
35. Mazama
36. Woodburn
37. The Dalles-Wahtonka
38. Parkrose
39. Roosevelt
40. Marshall
41. Madras
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