Championships At Stake In Capital, Skyline

Marist and Central wasted no time in claiming the championships of the SkyEm and the Valco, while Douglas had to work for the FarWest title.

Phoenix and Henley set up a showdown on the Skyline, and Ontario claimed the I-84 showdown.

Astoria took care of a formality called beating the ‘Mooks to lock up the Cowapa, and the Capital was already ticketed for a showdown on the last night.

Two title games are on the schedule, with a clear champion to be decided on the last night of the season in the Capital and Skyline Conferences, making those games the games of the week.

#10 North Marion Huskies (7-2, 4-1) at Stayton Eagles (7-2, 4-1). Cascade spoiled North Marion’s senior night, with a 29-12 win that was the worst outing of the season for the Husky defense, dropping them to number two in 4A in points allowed. Taft took Stayton deep into the game, holding a 10-7 halftime advantage, and taking a 17-14 lead late in the third quarter, before the Eagles rallied for the 28-19 win. All of the Eagles’ points came on the ground, half on Tyler Blythe touchdown runs.

Neither game affected the Capital Conference championship, as this week’s showdown in Stayton would have decided the title regardless of how the week 9 games turned out. But while Stayton had already clinched the second berth at worst, the loss left the Huskies in position to fall to the third seed if they lose, and Cascade defeats winless Illinois Valley, or Estacada loses to La Salle.

One key injury, to Jordan McCain, has really hampered the Husky offense, allowing opponents to overload situationally. If they fall behind the Eagles, they don’t score enough points to rally from a large deficit. Adam Hayden’s passing is the key to the game, as how well North Marion balances their offense will determine whether their defense can play downhill on the Eagles. If they can, the Eagles running game will be shut down.

Stayton’s passing game isn’t the threat Cascade’s was, but it supplements their run, at least some times. It will have to, against the Husky defense, but turnovers from the defense and opportunistic running is what wins for the Eagles.

Last year, the Huskies knocked the Eagles out of the playoffs with a 25 point fourth quarter that blew open the game, to a 38-7 final. If Jordan McCain was healthy, the North Marion balance would take care of business. But he isn’t. However, the Husky defense is, and Taft threw effectively at times against Stayton. Hayden has multiple viable targets, which will make a difference, and that will allow the Huskies to run well enough to keep their defense in play. The more physical Huskies capture the last Capital Conference championship.

Henley Hornets (5-4, 3-0) at Phoenix Pirates (5-2, 3-0). Henley and Phoenix locked up first round playoff byes, and home games in the second round, with lopsided road wins, as the Hornets swarmed Illinois Valley 52-13, and the Pirates plundered North Valley 56-20. Now, the Hornets fly into Phoenix to sort out who gets which one. The winner gets Junction City, while the loser will host either Siuslaw or Sutherlin.

Phoenix has generally faired better than Henley against their several common opponents, but the Hornets have been hot since recovering from a mid-season slump where they lost to Klamath, Mazama, and Sisters. The Pirates have been pretty much hot all year, except for an inexplicable bad outing at home against North Bend. Phoenix has also had a couple of breaks, one planed, one due to the flu, but has absorbed fewer hard hits as a result, and could be fresher at this point.

The beauty of this game is there is relatively little downside for the loser, so the incentive is there to open up the playbook and go for a league championship. Were the game in the basin, it would be hard to go against the Hornets, but home field tends to mean more down south, an advantage for Phoenix in this case. Also, despite the possibly skewing effect of the difference in number of games, every rating and indicator except avg. points per game favors Phoenix, albeit by small margins in most cases. That suggests there is reason to expect the Pirates to prevail in a close one. Look for a conversion situation to make the difference, but look for the Pirates to complete one of the best one-season turnarounds in a while, and claim the Skyline.

The Cowapa also has a winner takes all playoff game on the schedule.

#9 Scappoose Indians (6-3, 2-2) at Tillamook Cheesemakers (6-3, 2-2). The Indians buried Yamhill-Carlton 49-0, and Astoria buried Tilly 42-0, as both Dane Lund and Jacob Davis romped for over 100 yards, and Davis threw for over 100 as well.

This is officially a playoff game, with third place in the Cowapa at stake. And the teams have matching records, but it isn’t really that close. ‘Poose will put away the playoff berth, and probably quickly.

#5 Banks Braves (7-1, 3-1) at Yamhill-Carlton Tigers (1-8, 0-4). Banks rolled by Seaside 41-22, claiming the Cowapa’s second playoff seed in the process. YC claimed last place. Both will further cement these spots as the Braves add a Tiger Tale to their war bonnets.

#4 Astoria Fishermen (8-1, 4-0) at Seaside Seagulls (1-8, 1-3). Seaside again faired better than they had for two and a half seasons, but still fell far short, and Astoria is an even stronger test.

According to the brackets, the Cowapa champion Fish have a week off. Really, next week’s bye will be the fourth straight week of just scrimmaging, after Seaside joins YC & Tilly on the wrong end of runaways, or in this case, a swimaway.

Cascade and Estacada will be scoreboard watching, as their fates are affected by the game in Stayton.

La Salle Falcons (2-6, 1-4) at Estacada Rangers (4-4, 3-2). The up and down Falcons got 41 points on the non-existent Molalla defense, and still lost 44-41. The Rangers needed overtime to do it, but stayed alive in the playoff race, and eliminated Gladstone in the process, with 19-13 win.

Estacada must beat La Salle to have a chance at the postseason, but also needs help from the Huskies, as an Eagle win eliminates them.

La Salle can be explosive offensively, but their defense has been outmanned at almost every turn. Estacada won’t know if their effort will be relevant until after they have made it, so they will approach the game like a playoff contest. The Falcons’ defense won have the muscle to shut down a determined Ranger rushing game, and Estacada will finish with another winning record, as they have done every year since Brigham Baker arrived.

Gladstone Gladiators (2-6, 1-4) at Molalla Indians (2-6, 1-4). The Gladiators haven’t had any offense (36^th. of 40 4A teams in scoring), while the Indians offense, also known as the Jacob Moore show, is pretty decent, but has no defensive support (only Illinois Valley has given up more points per game). Good offense trumps poor defense, and the Gladiators lack speed on defense, so the Indians will close the season with an actual winning streak, the first of the year for either team.

Illinois Valley Cougars (0-9, 0-4) at Cascade Cougars (6-3, 4-2). The IV Cougars were swarmed by Henley 52-13 in their final Skyline game, and now are making their last start in 4A before moving down to 3A next year, a move overdue.

The Cascade Cougars, in part due to being more healthy than most of the Capital Conference, are playing as well as anyone down the stretch. But the turnaround came when their defense, which has allowed 18 points in three weeks, came together. Nick Lamonica’s three touchdown passes against North Marion added the balance to what had mostly been a rush mostly offense, stretching the Huskie defense beyond the breaking point.

Cascade needs either a Stayton win, or a La Salle win, and would prefer a North Marion win and a La Salle win, which would put them in the playoffs, but not against Marist.

Consecutive conference opening narrow losses to Stayton and Estacada may prove too much to overcome, but whether Cascade makes the playoffs or not, they will post their second 7-3 season in three years after winning the Cat fight over a badly outmanned IV squad. Ironically, the 2007 team that went 7-3 missed the postseason as well.

#2 Central Panthers (8-1, 3-0) at Philomath Warriors (3-6, 1-2). Grant Hedrick completed 16 of 21 passes against Sweet Home, for four touchdowns, and ran for another score, and 164 yards, making him the leading rusher and passer in the Panthers’ 58-13 blowout of Sweet Home that claimed the Valco championship. The Central defense added a pair of interception returns for scores as well, as the Panthers took a 34-13 lead in the first quarter, and had the game put away by halftime, going up 51-13.

The Warriors couldn’t sustain the offensive rebirth they displayed the last two weeks when they encountered the tough Newport defense, in a win to survive situation for the Cubs. Philomath’s defense wasn’t bad, but Newport isn’t an overwhelming offense. Central’s is.

Philomath can claim the third playoff slot from the Valco with an upset win and help from Taft. And the Warrior defense has almost matched the Panthers’. But Philo. will get torched by Central, which trails only Marist and Sheldon in scoring in 11 man football in the state.

Newport Cubs (6-2, 1-2) at Taft Tigers (3-6, 0-3). The Cubs can claim the Valco’s third playoff berth with a win, or a Philomath loss to Central, so last week’s win was effectively the playoff qualifier. Taft threw for 198 yards against the normally pretty solid Stayton defense, but still dropped their fifth straight game.

With Toledo’s departure for 3A four years ago in the last redistricting, Taft is the closest thing to a rival Newport has. But while the teams have been competitors for generations, the matchup lacks the rivalry effect that makes the outcome always a question. The Cubs, who stumbled after a 5-0 start, will regroup and tune up for the playoffs, and dispatch the Tigers.

#7T Sweet Home Huskies (7-2, 3-1) at Junction City Tigers (4-5, 4-2). The Huskies got slashed by Central, but already had the Valco’s second seed locked up, and the Tigers claimed the SkyEm’s second seed with a 29-20 win in La Pine. So this is a playoff tune up for both teams. Sweet Home will play opening week, at home against the GOL #3, while Junction City will have a bye, before traveling to the winner of the Henley-Phoenix game.

Eight of the Tigers opponents are still in the playoff hunt going into the tenth week of the season, and five or six will make it, so JC has certainly played a quality schedule. Only half as many quality opponents have dotted the Huskies’ schedule. Playing the common opponent game, Sweet Home actually came closer to Central, and beat Newport, while the Tigers lost to the Cubs. JC’s win over Sisters was better than SH’s, but overall, Sweet Home’s offense and defense have both been better. Huskies get the nod, but being a meaningless game, the alternate agendas both teams have make this a very shaky pick.

#1 Marist Spartans (9-0, 5-0) at Elmira Falcons (2-7, 1-4). Marist claimed the SkyEm championship with a 62-0 stomping of Pleasant Hill, and with the shutout, the Spartan defense moved to #1 in 4A for fewest points allowed, joining their offense, which has been #1 all year.

Elmira got run out of Sisters by a 46-14 score, the third straight week the Falcons have not been competitive. The Spartans last regular season game, and SkyEm game, before moving up to the Midwestern League next year, will be another blowout for Marist, whose’ closest calls were a pair of 27 point wins over Central and 5A Marshfield at the start of the season.

Sisters Outlaws (4-5, 2-3) at Cottage Grove Lions (3-5, 3-2). Chase Klient topped the 100 yard mark again as the Outlaws kept their slim playoff hopes alive, while Cottage Grove took the week off to get ready for the final week’s effective playoff action.

The Lions claim the SkyEm’s third playoff berth with a win, while the Outlaws need a win, and a Pleasant Hill loss to lay a clear claim to the berth.

Sisters has won three of four, losing only to Marist down the stretch. Cottage Grove has finally got their offense rolling, topping 40 points in their two wins before their bye. Easily the best game of the week in the middle part of the state.

The Lions have the better offense, run by Dustin Hurd, but Klient’s running keeps the Outlaws close. And Sisters has in the last month seen their defense develop to the point that they are better than CG’s. The Outlaws, with coach Bob Macauley’s experience would be the pick at home, but this one is in the Lions’ den. It’s on turf though, and that will diminish the disadvantage Sisters faces. More than winning big games, weak defense loses them, and the Lions’ have the weaker one. Outlaws keep hope alive.

La Pine Hawks (3-6, 1-4) at Pleasant Hill Billies (5-4, 2-3). La Pine’s fourth straight loss eliminated the Hawks from the post season chase, but they can still spoil Pleasant Hills’ bid should Sisters knock off Cottage Grove. A PH win, coupled with a Sisters victory, produces a three way tie for third, but the Billies have the advantage of a win over higher finishing Junction City.

PHill has lost four of their last five, but La Pine has lost six of seven. Billies at home take care of the Hawks, and check the scoreboard for the score from Cottage Grove.

#3 Douglas Trojans (9-0, 4-0) at South Umpqua Lancers (4-5, 1-3). The Trojans struggled past Sutherlin, winning 21-13 despite picking up only three first downs, but their lowest point production of the season was still enough to claim the FarWest crown. Paul Polamalu’s scrambling 51 yard completion that set up Jered Stoffal’s touchdown less than a minute before halftime was the difference.

The Lancers can climb into a three way tie for the third FarWest playoff berth with a win and a Sutherlin loss to Siuslaw, but last week’s 43-22 loss in North Bend ended their ability to control their own destiny.

They really didn’t have that ability though, as the loss showed, and that point will be reinforced by the Trojans, who will look to get their offense back on track for the playoffs against the inconsistent Lancer defense. Trojans are a cut above in this one, as they have been all season.

Sutherlin Bulldogs (4-4, 2-2) at Siuslaw Vikings (4-4, 3-1). Siuslaw claimed a narrow 47-43 shootout win over Brookings-Harbor, and clinched a playoff berth in the process. Sutherlin could have clinched a playoff spot with an upset against Douglas, and the Blue Bulldogs came close, but not close enough, as their offense couldn’t compliment a strong defensive effort.

The winner claims the second seed from the FarWest. If Sutherlin wins, Siuslaw is the third seed, as a Blue Bulldog win or a Douglas loss also eliminates South Umpqua, and the winner of the Brookings-Harbor / North Bend game.

Sutherlin still gets the third seed if Douglas defeats South Umpqua, as the Blue Bulldogs hold the tie-breaker over both the Bruins and the Brown Bulldogs. But a Sutherlin loss and a South Umpqua win creates a three way tie that would envoke tie breakers.

The Vikings have won two in a row, while the Blue Bulldogs have dropped two in a row. Couple that with the strong Siuslaw home field advantage, plus by far the better offense, and the Vikings get the win, and the first round bye. Fortunately for the Blue Bulldogs, as noted above, Douglas will do them a favor, after having put them in this position, and the Bulldogs will get a first round trip to ‘Poose.

Brookings-Harbor Bruins (3-5, 1-3) at North Bend Bulldogs (3-6, 1-3). Two teams coming in thinking about what might have been had they got things together a little sooner. The Bruins defense hasn’t been able to give their offense a good enough chance to win often enough, but the rebuilding Bruins were considered a year away, and a win would be a big boost going into the off season.

The Brown Bulldogs played a brutal schedule, but still beat a couple of playoff teams, and took out some frustration at South Umpqua’s expense. It was their first good outing since a disappointing six point loss in the conference opener at Douglas.

The Brown Bulldogs could have been in the hunt, and, as noted, the Bruins are still a year away. Brown Bulldogs roll at home.

Hidden Valley Mustangs (3-5, 1-2) at North Valley Knights (3-5, 1-2). The Mustangs dropped a listless effort at 5A Eagle Point 26-13, but that wasn’t as bad as the Knights’ defensive meltdown, and in a game where their playoff hopes were briefly on the line.

Nothing but neighborhood bragging rights is at stake here, and each team only has one good win against a quality opponent all season. Hard to tell which team, if either one, will show up here. The Mustang offense has been mostly missing in action this season, but so has the Knight’s defense.

But in games between bad teams that have nothing to play for, take the better offense. Knights win another of these pick nightmares, where a flu outbreak might be merciful.

La Grande Tigers (2-6, 1-1) at #7T Baker Bulldogs (7-1, 1-1). Technically, this is just a seeding game. The winner gets the second berth from the GOL, while the loser settles for the third seed. The Tigers claimed a playoff berth with a 41-13 win over McLoughlin, and the Purple Bulldogs lost the GOL title with a narrow 28-20 loss in Ontario.

Both teams will open the playoffs on the road, with the winner getting a bye before heading west, while the loser hits the road right away.

The difference is Baker belongs in the playoffs, and LG doesn’t. The Bulldogs will remind anyone who doubts that with a solid win.

#6 Ontario Tigers (7-1, 2-0) at McLoughlin Pioneers (2-6, 0-2). With a first round bye, this is just a drill to avoid getting rusty for the O-Tigers, after their biggest win in a couple of years. Pioneers start to pack up the gear at halftime, while O rolls.

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