Questions in the Capital, Answers in the Cowapa, and Do-Or-Die Games Across The Board

Astoria and Marist took control of the Cowapa and SkyEm races, and Phoenix is the surprise leader of the Skyline heading for the stretch run.

North Marion inherited sole ownership of first place in the Capital, but their title hopes took a hit with the loss of Jordan McCain.

The stretch drive is well underway in most of the races, and the GOL finally starts their season this week.

I was 10–9 (53 %) last week, as the upsets spiced up the Skyline and Capital races, and dropped to 112–49 (70 %) for the season.

Astoria Atop Cowapa

The Cowapa has a four-way logjam at 1-1 in the middle, but a severely front-loaded schedule with matchups among the elite merely means separation and sorting will take a little longer.

Scappoose Indians (5-2, 1-1) at Banks Braves (5-1, 1-1). Astoria added a 7-6 win over ‘Poose to their 30-3 victory in Banks the previous week, setting up the Cowapa second-place bowl. Banks rebounded nicely with a 42-14 blowout in Tillamook that exposed the Cheesemakers as an improved team that still has a ways to go to be more than one of the best of the rest.

The young Braves have not just reloaded, but possibly improved offensively, but their defense lags. ‘Poose’s offense hasn’t lagged, at least until they faced the Fish, and no such challenge awaits in Banks. This is often a heated rivalry game, but this year ‘Poose returns the favor after last year’s 55-21 scalping by the Braves in the Cowapa Indian War.

Astoria Fishermen (6-1, 2-0) at Yamhill-Carlton Tigers (1-6, 0-2). A slew of mistakes in the form of turnovers, drops, low percentage plays, and penalties characterized the battle in the drizzle, but with the game still not decided after the clock had wound down to 0.0, head coach Howard Rub accurately characterized the contest, observing "This was the kind of game I think people who were there will talk about for a long time." As is often the case when the Fish and the Indians get together.

They’ll be talking about Dane Lund when they do so. Lund accounted for 211 of Astoria's 248 total yards, and made first contact on ‘Poose’s Jesse Oblack on the game deciding two point conversion gamble.

Yamhill-Carlton did something not done since 2006. The Tigers lost to Seaside, and it was decisive. The Gulls allowed the Tigers their best offensive night in a month, but YC’s defense had their worst night of the year, resulting in a 42-18 defeat.

So we have the best team in the conference visiting the worst. Fish swim off with another win.

Seaside Seagulls (1-6, 1-1) at Tillamook Cheesemakers (5-2, 1-1). Seaside’s offense has been showing signs of life for the last month, but surprised even themselves when their defense actually gave the offense a chance. Tillamook’s offense was consistent with what they have been doing, but when faced with an elite level offense, their defense faltered.

Breaking a 26 game losing streak suddenly gives the Gulls hope against the Cheesemakers, but they will find that Tilly is still a ways ahead of them with the rebuilding project. Tilly bounces back, but at least the Gulls will escape the cellar, now that that goose egg in the win column is gone.

Injuries Make Capital Intriguing

The Capital has started to sort out, with no ties in the top four slots, but the injury bug is the story, and could further shuffle the deck down the stretch.

North Marion Huskies (6-1, 3-0) at Estacada Rangers (3-3, 2-1). The ‘Sporty’ game of the week may not turn out to be the best game of the week, but it will provide answers to some of the biggest questions in 4A, and the interested parties extend well beyond the conference boundaries.

North Marion’s 27-0 win over Elmira came with a very high price, as McCain was the key to the team’s production. With his high school football career over with two broken bones in his forearm, can the Huskies regroup, and find someone else to become the team leader, both in terms of emotional spark, and plain old production?

Estacada’s 52-43 win over Molalla was impressive, even if it was against the worst defense in the conference. After losing Alex Pursel, last year’s conference offensive co-player of the year, for the season to a knee injury at the end of the Stayton game, the Rangers found they would also have to go without Eli Duhrcoop, who suffered with the flu all week. Cameron Hough stepped up, but also was hobbled before the end of the game.

Jacob Layton picked up part of the load, and Hough is expected back, as is Duhrcoop, but the Huskies still have the best defense in the state. How deep is the stable of backs in Estacada’s mostly one dimensional offense? Can their defense that counts on the offense keeping them off the field continue to keep them in games?

The Huskies have the toughest half of their league schedule left, facing their top three pursuers in the last three weeks, but the beat-up Rangers and their porous defense are the best one to start with, and try to re-establish their offense.

But the rest of the Husky team has been playing well, and that defense is intact. And the Ranger offense isn’t at full speed. Huskies hold on to first place in the mid-term quiz game of the week.

La Salle Falcons (2-4, 1-2) at Cascade Cougars (4-3, 2-2). The mercurial Falcons stunned Stayton with a 49-22 win that salved some old wounds from last year’s upset loss. It was La Salle’s best offensive game in a year, since their 49-12 win over Cascade in PGE Park.

Cascade was one dimensional in their 24-0 win over Gladstone, but when that run dimension produces a 199 yard performance by Robbie Federico, and a 173 yard night for Dillon Davidson, not a lot more was needed.

The winner is still in the running, while the loser will be playing out the string the last couple of weeks, making this a playoff game. The Cougars have transformed into a running team, and for the first time this season, gotten a complete game from their defense. The Falcons’ best offensive performance came on the heels of their worst one, while their defense has been rather consistent, though consistently rather mediocre. Not a good thing against a powerful running team. Cascade pounds out a Homecoming win with ball control that will limit La Salle’s offensive possessions.

Stayton Eagles (5-2, 3-1) at Gladstone Gladiators (2-4, 1-2). The Eagles’ T ‘n T combination of Tyler Blythe and Tyler Mikolas produced again, but the usually solid Stayton defense couldn’t control La Salle at the start of the game, or down the stretch.

Blythe carried 16 times for 109 yards and three touchdowns, and Mikolas added 156 yards on 24 carries. But Falcon quarterback Kieran McDonagh threw for two first half touchdowns, as La Salle took a 16-0 lead, and took a 29-6 lead to the halftime break.

Blythe had two of his touchdown runs in the third quarter, as the Eagles rallied within 29-22, but McDonagh ran for two touchdowns as the Falcons flew away with 20 unanswered points.

A beat up Gladstone squad not only couldn’t stop the Cascade run, they couldn’t run effectively either, managing only 63 net yards until the last drive of the game. Devon Renard’s 49 yards on kick returns was the Gladiators’ most effective weapon.

Not being able to run or stop the run will be as disastrous for Gladstone against Stayton as it was against Cascade. The Eagles won’t fly off with this one, but they will run off with it, and be checking for help from Estacada in the Capital Conference race.

The Molalla Indians (1-6, 0-4) have a bye, and need to spend the last weeks of the season developing a defense to support the offense they have successfully rebuilt heading for next season.

Huskies Head Up Valco; Cubs Face Uphill Battle

Central Panthers (6-1, 1-0) at Newport Cubs (5-1, 0-1). Central simply outclassed Highline, WA, and had the 49-0 final secured with over three and a half minutes left in the third quarter. It was a balanced attack, as four different Panthers carried for five rushing touchdowns, and Central romped to 231 rushing yards to go with 220 passing yards, and a pair of Grant Hedrick touchdown tosses.

Newport twice gambled on two-point conversions, and failed twice. As a result, they lost by two points, 28-26 in Sweet Home, and became the second team to potentially throw away a title, and certainly a higher playoff berth, on low percentage gambling.

The two-point conversion is one of the lowest percentage of success plays in football, and that low percentage is artificially higher than it should be, due to the number of good high school teams that lack a kicker, but convert against weak teams. That wasn’t the case Friday night.

‘Poose passed up an opportunity to have multiple plays in overtime, opting to stake the Cowapa championship on one low-percentage play (see above). Newport did them one better, and why is a mystery, having successfully converted the kick on their first score. The Cubs were successful kicking after their last score as well, but it was too late for Trystan Metcalf’s 81 yard touchdown reception to make a difference.

As a result, the Cubs, who could have probably effectively clinched a home playoff game with a win, will have to defeat Central to avoid a probable long trip to southern Oregon, and a win there would result in a trip to Astoria.

Defeating the Panthers requires a near-perfect effort, and can’t include unforced mistakes. Cubs will come up short, and the Panthers will set up a showdown with Sweet Home for the Valco title.

Sweet Home Huskies (6-1, 2-0) at Taft Tigers (3-4, 0-2). The Huskies ran more than nine minutes off the clock on their way to the game winning touchdown, a 20 play drive that covered 55 yards, and included three fourth down conversions. The drive was capped by Brock Cota's two yard dive, for his third touchdown of the game.

The Husky defense also held the Cubs, who came in averaging over 200 yards per game rushing, to just 67 yards on the ground, as Sweet Home moved to the top of the Valco standings.

Taft tumbled 26-13 in Philomath, as the Tigers’ promising start to the season slipped below the .500 mark, with their third consecutive loss, all by double digits.

It’s only Sweet Home’s second road game, though the Huskies have seen the last of Husky Stadium until the playoffs, finishing with three straight on the road. The turf in Taft will prevent any coastal weather conditions from affecting the Sweet Home offense though, and the Huskies will maul the Tigers.

La Pine Hawks (3-4, 1-3) at Philomath Warriors (2-5, 1-1). La Pine dropped their fourth decision in their last five outings, falling short 26-20 in Sisters. Philomath had their best offensive outing of the year in a game not against Seaside in the win over Taft, but more importantly, had their best defensive effort of the season.

The non-conference contest between these Valco and Skyem teams probably not headed for the post-season could be a season salvager for the winner. The Warriors’ defense has been the better of the two, and the Hawks have a long trip to make. Which will make the trip home even longer; Philo. strings together a winning streak.

Marist In Command of Otherwise Muddled SkyEm Chase

Sisters Outlaws (3-4, 1-2) at Marist Spartans (7-0, 3-0). The Outlaws have a two game winning streak going, thanks to a near-400 yard rushing game by Chase Klient. The Spartans have control of the SkyEm race, and maybe all of 4A, after a 56-14 blowout of Junction City.

Sisters is getting the pieces put back together, but Marist has them all put together. Another scoring fest is in store against a middle-of-the road Outlaw defense by the best offense in the state in 11 man football. The Spartans have the second best defense too, and will roll on.

Junction City Tigers (3-4, 3-1) at Pleasant Hill Billies (4-3, 1-2). The Tigers saw their three game winning streak shattered by Marist, and now have back to back road games to finish the SkyEm schedule. The Billies are another team watching a promising start go down the drain, after losing their third straight, a 42-28 thumping in Cottage Grove. And unlike JC, Marist is still to come.

Losing to Marist isn’t a season wrecker, and JC had generally played well against some tough competition. Plus the Tigers beat CG the week before they humbled PH. They also defeated Elmira, who also handed the Billies a loss. Tigers have the better defense, and are the better team. JC can lock up a playoff berth with the win as well, which will be ample motivation. Tigers roar.

Cottage Grove Lions (2-5, 2-2) at Elmira Falcons (2-5, 1-2). It’s strange to talk about a game involving two win teams being a playoff elimination game this late in the season outside the GOL, but in the scramble for the third SkyEm playoff berth, that’s what this is. The difference is the Falcons are a conversion play away from being irrelevant, while the outcome of a conversion play is all that stands between the Lions and second place in the SkyEm.

The Lions’ don’t play defense (CG ranks 39 our of 40 4A teams in points allowed), but the Falcons don’t play offense very much, so the usual Lion downfall shouldn’t come into play here. Elmira doesn’t play great defense either, while Cottage Grove has finally been rolling up the points of late. Lions roar too.

Blue Bulldogs Join Trojans Atop Farwest

A surprise in the dog fight, and no surprise in Florence, sets up what looks like a possible Far West title game in Sutherlin in a week. But first things first, as there is still some work to be done.

Brookings-Harbor Bruins (3-3, 1-1) at Douglas Trojans (7-0, 2-0). The Bruins snuck into the playoff chase with a 41-21 win over South Umpqua. The Lancers had no answer for Dustin Paradis who scored three touchdowns and intercepted two passes for Brookings, as the Bruins built a 28-0 lead by halftime.

The Trojans took care of business with a 23-7 road win over Siuslaw, as Paul Polamalu passed for two touchdowns and ran for another.

If this was down the coast at the end of a winding bus ride, it would be a game to put the Trojans on upset alert. But not in Winston, where second year coach Joe Polamalu has the Douglas crowd thinking about a return to glory not seen since before Troy P. left for USC. Trojans triumph, with an eye already trained on a showdown with Sutherlin.

Sutherlin Bulldogs (3-3, 2-0) at South Umpqua Lancers (3-4, 0-2). The Blue Bulldogs put the Brown Bulldogs back on the porch in North Bend, with a dominant 28-6 win. Sutherlin’s Dirk Kats returned the opening kickoff 75 yards for a touchdown, and the Blue Bulldogs took a 21 point lead before North Bend scored. With a 21-6 lead at halftime, the Bluedogs never let NB get another bite in, claiming a share of first place with their first win in the dog fight sine 2005.

In the second half in Brookings, the Lancers got an 85 yard kickoff return from Josh Kennedy, who also threw a 20 yard touchdown pass to David Huling, but the South Umpqua had dug themselves into too deep a hole, and suffered their third straight loss.

It’s only their third home game, so it’s hard to say if the surroundings will be familiar enough to help, and SU could use some defensive help. Sutherlin had their three losses back in September, and have cruised to three touchdown wins the last two weeks. The Blue Bulldogs are playing much better right now, and are looking forward to a shot at Douglas with high stakes on the table. They won’t let the opportunity get skewered by the Lancers.

North Bend Bulldogs (2-5, 0-2) at Siuslaw Vikings (2-4, 1-1). Neither team is going to be happy coming off lopsided losses. The Brown Bulldogs have backed themselves into a corner, largely due to facing the toughest schedule in 4A, and will have to run the table the rest of the way to reach the playoffs. The dogfight was only North Bend’s second home game, but after this week, they do get to finish with a two game home stand, which should aid with the task at hand.

The Vikings are in better shape, and don’t have to go inland again, but haven’t had a quality win, and haven’t shown they can get one. Despite the game being in Florence, North Bend still appears to be the stronger team. Road experience will matter, and the Brown Bulldogs will be the ones who bounce back.

Phoenix Leads Skyline; Henley Hangs In

Just when it looked like Henley was in trouble, they put Hidden Valley in trouble, and set up, what else, a big game at the hive.

North Valley Knights (3-3, 1-0) at Henley Hornets (3-4, 1-0). The Knights come in off a bye, and a pair of pastings of apparent patsies, but what they might have expected to be a relatively easy trip to the basin took on a whole new look when Henley hammered Hidden Valley 22-7. Now the significance of the Hornets’ three game mid-season slump seems much less, and North Valley’s lack of success against quality competition looks much more relevant.

Look for a hostile setting in the basin, and with only two playoff slots for the Skyline this season, a playoff atmosphere. The significance of the situation won’t be lost around the hive, and Hornets will sting the Knights.

Illinois Valley Cougars (0-7, 0-2) at Hidden Valley Mustangs (2-4, 0-2). Phoenix took their turn at trouncing the Cougars, and the 61-14 blowout was the worst pounding yet of the state’s worst 11-man defense. The Mustangs won’t approach that with their offense, 36^th. out of 40 in 4A, but with the third best defense in 4A, they don’t need to, especially since IV is also the weakest offense in 4A. HV pads their offensive stats, and maintains their defensive ones, trampling IV.

The Phoenix Pirates (4-2, 2-0) have sole possession of the Skyline, and a bye to prepare for a trip to Merlin in a week to face North Valley, and a visit from Henley.

GOL Gets Going

The GOL finally gets their grueling three game league grind going, a stretch considered so tough that three of the four teams took a week off, and the other took on a JV team, to get ready.

Ontario Tigers (5-1) at La Grande Tigers (1-5). Both come in off a bye, and a win. The difference is the O-Tigers are coming off five impressive wins, while LG’s only win was against one-win Madras.

The cage match will be a mismatch, with the Crimson and Corn taking it to the Blue Tigers, and taking the win back to O-town, with a title tilt in the works against Baker.

Baker Bulldogs (6-0) at McLoughlin Pioneers (2-4). The Pioneers put away the Pasco JV 34-9, but have no wins against 4A level varsity opponents. The Purple Bulldogs have three wins against 3A teams, and three against out of state opponents. But the last two, in overtime in Fruitland, Idaho, and against a 6A sized Canadian team from Lethbridge, stamped Baker as legitimate.

The Bulldogs are eyeing a showdown next week in Ontario that will probably decide the GOL, but they while they may sleep on the long bus ride, they won’t sleep on the Pioneers, or look past them. Baker bags this one in a tune up.

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